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Capital-market effects of tipper-tippee insider trading law: Evidence from the Newman ruling

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2024 77(2-3), 101639
This study examines the capital-market effects of tipper-tippee insider trading laws. To do so, I exploit the unexpected decision issued by the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in U.S. v. Newman 773 F.3d 438, which reduced legal jeopardy for Second Circuit-based market participants prior to being overturned. Consistent with Newman constraining insider trading enforcement, I find strong evidence of plausible insider trading in the Second Circuit following the ruling. I also document a substantial reduction in general trading activity in Second Circuit stocks, as well as an increase in daily quoted spreads and the price impact of trading. These findings are consistent with unchecked insider trading increasing transaction costs and crowding-out investors. In total, my results show that tipper-tippee insider trading restrictions play an important role in bolstering market integrity, and that market participants can to some degree counteract insider trading when public regulation is constrained.

Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences

Journal of Economic Literature 2024 62(2), 813-814
Andrew T. Levin of Dartmouth College and NBER reviews “Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences” by Raghuram Rajan. The EconLit abstract of this book begins: “Details how monetary adventurism can have unintended effects and promotes policy that is moderate and focused on combating high inflation and financial instability.”

Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Corporate R&D

Journal of Labor Economics 2024 42(2), 469-509
This paper offers the first study of how changes in corporate R&D investment affect labor mobility. We show that increases in R&D spur employee departures to join start-ups’ founding teams. This appears to reflect employees taking the ideas, skills, or technologies created through the R&D process but not especially valuable to the R&D-investing firm to start-ups. The employee-founded start-ups tend to be outside the R&D-investing employer’s industry, suggesting that the underlying ideas would impose diversification costs on the R&D-investing firm. The start-ups are more likely to be VC backed, high tech, and high wage, pointing to substantial spillover benefits.

Unemployment Insurance (UI) Benefit Generosity and Labor Supply from 2002 to 2020: Evidence from California UI Records

Journal of Labor Economics 2024 42(S1), S379-S416
This paper obtains comparable estimates of the effect of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on labor supply throughout the unemployment spell and over the business cycle using a regression kink design and 20 years of administrative data from California. For a given unemployment duration, the behavioral effect of UI benefit levels on labor supply does not vary with the business cycle from 2002 to 2019. However, due to increased coverage from extensions in benefit durations, the duration elasticity of UI benefits rises during recessions. The behavioral effect during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is substantially lower at all unemployment durations.

The saliency of the CEO pay ratio

Review of Finance 2024 28(3), 1059-1104 open access
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s mandated CEO pay ratio is a simple, but salient, metric that could resonate with employees given it focuses on their compensation. Reporting a relatively or surprisingly high ratio reduces employee perceptions of their pay, views of the CEO, and hampers productivity growth. Employee pay satisfaction drops after disclosing a high ratio even if their wages were previously disclosed and when the pay ratio disclosure adds little new information. Disclosures by firms with a high ratio contain more discretionary language to explain the ratio or portray employee relations positively and are more likely to be covered by the media. However, neither information source substantially alters the employee response to a salient ratio. Our work illustrates that requiring firms to disclose a salient metric can have unintended consequences on employees and suggests caution in requiring firms to report simplified Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) metrics that are inherently multifaceted.

Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data

Econometrica 2024 92(4), 1135-1162
We examine identification of differentiated products demand when one has “micro data” linking the characteristics and choices of individual consumers. Our model nests standard specifications featuring rich observed and unobserved consumer heterogeneity as well as product/market‐level unobservables that introduce the problem of econometric endogeneity. Previous work establishes identification of such models using market‐level data and instruments for all prices and quantities. Micro data provides a panel structure that facilitates richer demand specifications and reduces requirements on both the number and types of instrumental variables. We address identification of demand in the standard case in which nonprice product characteristics are assumed exogenous, but also cover identification of demand elasticities and other key features when these product characteristics are endogenous and not instrumented. We discuss implications of these results for applied work.

The Expanding Landscape of Online Education: Who Engages and How They Fare

Journal of Labor Economics 2024 42(S1), S417-S443
Online university courses have become common, though some question whether the modality can adequately substitute for an in-person experience. We explore online course enrollment and student outcomes at a large public 4-year system. Online enrollment nearly doubled from 2012 to 2019. Female students and older students were especially likely to take online classes. Students earned more As and Fs in online courses, but semester grade point averages were higher in terms when students took at least one class online. Importantly, taking higher shares of courses online was associated with increased degree completion, with the largest benefits for younger students and male students.

What Can Volatility Smiles Tell Us About the Too Big to Fail Problem?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(2), 863-895 open access
We exploit the information content of option prices to construct a novel measure of bank tail risk. We document a persistent increase in tail risk for the U.S. banking industry following the global financial crisis, except for banks designated as systemically important by the Dodd–Frank Act. We show that this post-crisis difference in tail risk for large and small banks is consistent with the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) status of large banks being reinforced by the Dodd–Frank designation: Naming the banks whose failure could threaten the financial stability of the U.S. gave investors a list of banks the government deemed as TBTF.

Shareholder perceptions of external tax advisors in corporate tax planning

Contemporary Accounting Research 2024 41(2), 1311-1345 open access
We examine shareholders' perceptions about how external tax advisors contribute to corporate tax planning. As residual claimants of corporate tax planning, shareholders benefit from lower corporate taxes, but also bear the financial and reputational costs of subsequent tax enforcement. Despite the influential advisory role of external tax advisors in corporate tax planning, existing research on how shareholders perceive this role is limited. Using event study methods and exploiting the heightened regulation of tax advice through the covered opinion rules as a setting, we observe average and cross‐sectional stock returns consistent with shareholders perceiving external tax advisors as contributing unfavorably to tax planning by promoting excessively risky strategies. We further find that risky and overall tax planning declined across firms after the enactment of the rules, consistent with shareholders' perceptions about tax advisors' contributions to firms' tax planning. Overall, our findings contribute to research on shareholder perceptions and valuation of tax planning, and have important implications for practice, where regulatory oversight of external tax advisors remains a significant concern.

Measuring Welfare by Matching Households across Time

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2024 139(1), 533-573
The money metric utility function is an essential tool for calculating welfare-relevant growth and inflation. We show how to recover it from repeated cross-sectional data without making parametric assumptions about preferences. We do this by solving the following recursive problem. Given compensated demand, we construct money metric utility by integration. Given money metric utility, we construct compensated demand by matching households over time whose money metric utility value is the same. We illustrate our method using household consumption survey data from the United Kingdom from 1974 to 2017 and find that real consumption calculated using official aggregate inflation statistics overstates money metric utility in 1974 pounds for the poorest households by around 0.5% a year and understates it by around a third of a percentage point per year for the richest households. We extend our method to allow for missing or mismeasured prices, assuming preferences are separable between goods with well-measured prices and the rest. We discuss how our results change if the prices of some service sectors are mismeasured.